Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.88 | 1.47 | 11.6% | 6.9% | 61.8% |
| RP · chosen | 4.42 | 1.43 | 13.7% | 7.1% | 63.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.3 in | 16.2 in | 16.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -6.9 in | -6.9 in | -6.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 87.3 mph | 87.9 mph | 87.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.5 in | 11.6 in | 11.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | 16.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | 90 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Zone rate | 53.8% | 51.8% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.1% | 29.1% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| Whiff rate | 13.1% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 68.9% | 61.8% | 63.8% | 63.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.4% | 41.0% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.3 pp | 1.3 pp | 1.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 10.3% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 85.3% | 85.4% | 85.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 73.4% | 74.0% | 74.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% |