Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.2 in
- RP forecast
- 4.1 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.2 in | 4.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.3 in | 19.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.7 mph | 93.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.0 in | 8.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.3% | 48.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.5% | 28.9% | 29.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.4% | 22.4% | 24.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.9% | 33.7% | 35.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.4% | 38.2% | 35.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.7% | 38.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.2% | 32.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 34.5% | 33.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.4% | 33.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.8% | 16.0% | — |