Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.54 | 1.37 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 40.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.09 | 1.34 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 42.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.9 in | 7.9 in | 7.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.2 mph | 92.8 mph | 92.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.1 in | 6.3 in | 6.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.5 in | 13.6 in | 13.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 44.0% | 46.2% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.2% | 28.7% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Whiff rate | 26.7% | 25.7% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.9% | 40.3% | 42.3% | 42.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.3% | 41.1% | 38.7% | 38.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.0% | 19.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.2% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.1% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.0% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.0% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.5% | 22.7% | 22.7% |