Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.2 in
- RP forecast
- 17.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.2 in | 17.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.5 in | 7.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.5 mph | 95.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.7 in | 13.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.4 in | 18.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 55.0% | 51.3% | 51.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.0% | 26.5% | 27.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.0% | 19.4% | 21.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.4% | 46.5% | 48.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.5% | 42.9% | 40.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.1% | 17.8% | 19.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 10.9% | 11.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 66.2% | 66.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 49.5% | 50.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 22.7% | 21.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.7% | 21.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.7% | 13.9% | — |