Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.43 | 1.33 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 40.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.97 | 1.29 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 42.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.9 in | 15.8 in | 15.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.2 in | 10.2 in | 10.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.7 mph | 95.3 mph | 95.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 15.0 in | 15.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Zone rate | 52.7% | 51.0% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.3% | 27.1% | 27.7% | 27.7% |
| Whiff rate | 21.9% | 21.5% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.5% | 40.3% | 42.3% | 42.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.5% | 41.1% | 38.7% | 38.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.6% | 21.7% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.5% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.1% | 60.1% | 60.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.9% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.7% | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |