Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 11.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.55 | 1.33 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 36.1% |
| RP · chosen | 4.09 | 1.29 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 38.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.2 in | 11.1 in | 11.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.4 mph | 94.9 mph | 94.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.4 in | 6.5 in | 6.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.1 in | 18.3 in | 18.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | 93 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 48.3% | 49.6% | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.4% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Whiff rate | 27.1% | 25.2% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.7% | 36.1% | 38.1% | 38.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.6% | 41.3% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.3% | 20.0% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.8% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.2% | 45.2% | 45.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.5% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.7% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.9% | 23.1% | 23.1% |