Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 12.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 12.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.25 | 1.16 | 29.6% | 7.7% | 53.3% |
| RP · chosen | 2.79 | 1.12 | 31.7% | 8.0% | 55.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.7 in | 12.7 in | 12.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | 13.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 99.7 mph | 100.2 mph | 100.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.7 in | 13.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.3 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 111 | 112 | 112 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 110 | 111 | 111 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 46.1% | 48.1% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.1% | 31.2% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Whiff rate | 35.7% | 32.0% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 59.4% | 53.3% | 55.3% | 55.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.1% | 41.8% | 39.4% | 39.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 35.6% | 29.6% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 22.8% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.5% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.5% | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 41.2% | 40.3% | 40.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.1% | 36.3% | 36.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.0% |