Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.4 in
- RP forecast
- 7.3 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.4 in | 7.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.8 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.8 mph | 92.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.4 in | 8.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.4 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 95 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 51.3% | 49.6% | 49.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 47.4% | 32.5% | 33.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.0% | 19.3% | 21.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 25.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 25.0% | 35.1% | 37.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.5% | 39.7% | 37.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 0.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 27.3% | 20.6% | 22.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.0% | 27.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 68.3% | 68.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.6% | 27.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.4% | 2.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.1% | 29.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 23.0% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable