Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.5 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.64 | 1.24 | 30.2% | 9.8% | 47.6% |
| RP · chosen | 3.18 | 1.20 | 32.3% | 10.1% | 49.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.5 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.6 in | 13.6 in | 13.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 99.0 mph | 99.6 mph | 99.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.2 in | 6.4 in | 6.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.1 in | 17.2 in | 17.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 112 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | 105 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 42.6% | 45.2% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 37.1% | 32.2% | 32.8% | 32.8% |
| Whiff rate | 39.6% | 34.4% | 36.2% | 36.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.8% | 47.6% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.7% | 42.3% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.9 pp | 0.9 pp | 0.9 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 37.1% | 30.2% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 43.5% | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.4% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.9% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 39.0% | 40.3% | 40.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% |