Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.9 in
- RP forecast
- 5.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.9 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.2 in | 17.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.7 mph | 98.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.1 in | 17.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.1 in | 12.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 112 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 108 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.9% | 48.5% | 48.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 38.4% | 31.9% | 32.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.1% | 24.0% | 25.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.4% | 39.4% | 41.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.0% | 40.9% | 38.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.0% | 22.1% | 24.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 3.3% | 3.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.8% | 67.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.3% | 48.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 30.0% | 29.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.0% | 28.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.7% | 11.0% | — |