Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 4.7 in
- RP forecast
- 4.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.72 | 1.38 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 44.3% |
| RP | 4.26 | 1.35 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 46.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.7 in | 4.6 in | 4.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.1 in | 13.2 in | 13.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.4 in | 7.5 in | 7.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.3 in | 7.4 in | 7.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 93 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Zone rate | 50.5% | 49.6% | 49.4% | 49.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.2% | 28.1% | 28.7% | 28.1% |
| Whiff rate | 23.5% | 23.4% | 25.1% | 23.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.9% | 44.3% | 46.3% | 44.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.9% | 39.0% | 36.6% | 39.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.8% | 17.8% | 19.9% | 17.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.0% | 38.6% | 38.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.4% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.0% | 27.5% | 27.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 18.7% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.7% | 21.9% | 20.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.3% | 17.5% | 18.3% |