Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 10.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.32 | 1.33 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 42.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.87 | 1.29 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 44.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.1 in | 10.1 in | 10.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.7 in | 11.8 in | 11.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.1 mph | 91.7 mph | 91.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 56.0% | 52.3% | 52.0% | 52.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.1% | 25.5% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Whiff rate | 23.1% | 22.9% | 24.6% | 24.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.0% | 42.8% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.0% | 38.4% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.9% | 21.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.9% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.4% | 69.5% | 69.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 58.8% | 59.4% | 59.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.9% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |