Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.47 | 1.35 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 39.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.01 | 1.31 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 41.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.3 in | 4.2 in | 4.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | 17.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.3 mph | 92.9 mph | 92.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.9 in | 7.0 in | 7.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 46.3% | 47.0% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.0% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 32.1% | 28.2% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.9% | 39.5% | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 29.3% | 36.7% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.8% | 22.4% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.6% | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.7% | 36.2% | 36.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 33.8% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.7% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% |