Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.8 in
- RP forecast
- 4.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.8 in | 4.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.9 mph | 92.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.8 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.0 in | 11.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 89 | 89 | — |
| Zone rate | 53.5% | 51.4% | 51.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 20.8% | 25.6% | 26.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.8% | 20.2% | 21.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.4% | 36.2% | 38.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.6% | 41.6% | 39.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.5 pp | 1.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 11.6% | 15.8% | 17.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.2% | 34.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.6% | 56.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.9% | 49.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.9% | 9.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 23.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 9.9% | — |