Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.8 in
- RP forecast
- 6.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.58 | 1.37 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 46.6% |
| RP | 4.12 | 1.33 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 48.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.8 in | 6.7 in | 6.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | 94.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.5 in | 15.6 in | 15.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.1 in | 4.2 in | 4.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 50.2% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.7% | 27.3% | 27.9% | 27.3% |
| Whiff rate | 19.8% | 20.7% | 22.5% | 20.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.0% | 46.6% | 48.6% | 46.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.9% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 41.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.2% | 17.3% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.0% | 26.6% | 26.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.6% | 25.2% | 24.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.2% | 23.4% | 22.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.1% | 15.3% | 16.1% |