Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.37 | 1.34 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 39.7% |
| RP · chosen | 3.91 | 1.30 | 25.7% | 10.4% | 41.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.8 in | 8.7 in | 8.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.3 mph | 94.9 mph | 94.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.2 in | 18.3 in | 18.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.0 in | 13.1 in | 13.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 23.9% | 26.3% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Whiff rate | 25.3% | 24.0% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.6% | 39.7% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.7% | 38.3% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.3% | 23.6% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.6% | 32.1% | 32.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.8% | 59.8% | 59.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 54.5% | 55.1% | 55.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.4% | 24.6% | 24.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% |