Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.60 | 1.38 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 45.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.14 | 1.34 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 47.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.3 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.7 in | 9.7 in | 9.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 94.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.7 in | 13.8 in | 13.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.2 in | 4.4 in | 4.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.5% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.2% | 28.2% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| Whiff rate | 22.1% | 22.8% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.8% | 45.9% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.1% | 41.1% | 38.6% | 38.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.7% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.0% | 30.6% | 30.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.1% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.9% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.4% | 19.6% | 19.6% |