Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.1 in
- RP forecast
- 16.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.2 in | 8.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.0 mph | 98.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.7 in | 7.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.6% | 47.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.0% | 28.4% | 29.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.2% | 25.7% | 27.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 1.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.6% | 47.7% | 49.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.1% | 42.2% | 39.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 15.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 29.6% | 23.6% | 25.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.3% | 29.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.9% | 62.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 41.6% | 42.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.7% | 5.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.8% | 26.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.7% | 18.9% | — |