Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.7 in
- RP forecast
- 6.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.7 in | 6.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.4 in | 16.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.9 mph | 97.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.6 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 17.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.5% | 48.4% | 48.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.3% | 27.5% | 28.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.9% | 23.2% | 25.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.7% | 39.2% | 41.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.4% | 41.7% | 39.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.4% | 10.3% | 10.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.3% | 19.7% | 21.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.4% | 41.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.7% | 55.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 41.1% | 41.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.0% | 3.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.2% | 29.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.4% | 12.6% | — |