Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.9 in
- RP forecast
- 14.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.9 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 0.3 in | 0.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.6 mph | 94.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.1 in | 11.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 2.5 in | 2.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 109 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 35.4% | 41.7% | 41.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.9% | 29.2% | 29.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 41.6% | 33.6% | 35.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 60.3% | 57.4% | 59.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.3% | 42.2% | 39.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.4 pp | 1.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 18.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 33.3% | 25.1% | 27.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 48.3% | 48.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.0% | 47.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.7% | 28.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.9% | 3.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.6% | 28.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.2% | 22.4% | — |