Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.7 in
- RP forecast
- 16.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.56 | 1.38 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 47.8% |
| RP | 4.10 | 1.34 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 49.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.7 in | 16.6 in | 16.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.5 in | 7.6 in | 7.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | 95.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.5 in | 11.6 in | 11.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.9 in | 12.0 in | 11.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 46.4% | 47.6% | 47.3% | 47.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.5% | 31.1% | 31.7% | 31.1% |
| Whiff rate | 26.3% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 24.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.7% | 47.8% | 49.8% | 47.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.2% | 42.1% | 39.7% | 42.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.8% | 18.3% | 20.4% | 18.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.9% | 42.4% | 41.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.1% | 38.1% | 38.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.2% | 24.8% | 24.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 21.8% | 20.9% | 21.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.0% | 23.2% | 22.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 21.0% | 21.8% |