Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.2 in
- RP forecast
- 14.1 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.2 in | 14.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.8 in | 3.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.5 mph | 91.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.3 in | 13.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.0 in | 13.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 48.0% | 47.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.3% | 29.0% | 29.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.1% | 22.5% | 24.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.0% | 48.7% | 50.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 28.3% | 39.3% | 36.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.0% | 18.0% | 20.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 46.0% | 46.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.8% | 50.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.8% | 28.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.2% | 1.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.5% | 1.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.4% | 36.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.4% | 20.6% | — |