Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.1 in
- RP forecast
- 9.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.1 in | 9.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.5 mph | 92.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.3 in | 15.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.8 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 93 | 95 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 36.5% | 44.2% | 44.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.5% | 25.7% | 26.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 24.2% | 25.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 14.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 57.1% | 43.7% | 45.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 28.6% | 39.0% | 36.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 3.3 pp | 3.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 20.0% | 11.3% | 11.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 33.3% | 22.5% | 24.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 20.3% | 20.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.6% | 55.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 49.3% | 49.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.1% | 24.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.3% | 24.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.4% | 13.6% | — |