Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.0 in
- RP forecast
- 16.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.0 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.4 in | 8.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.7 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.4 in | 17.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 102 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 43.9% | 47.5% | 47.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.8% | 30.6% | 31.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.2% | 27.4% | 29.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 41.6% | 43.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.8% | 40.9% | 38.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 29.5% | 25.3% | 27.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 50.8% | 51.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 46.6% | 46.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.9% | 26.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 37.3% | 38.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 16.1% | — |