Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 15.2 in
- RP forecast
- 15.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.19 | 1.34 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 54.4% |
| RP | 3.73 | 1.30 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 56.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.2 in | 15.1 in | 15.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.7 in | 5.7 in | 5.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 93.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.0 in | 19.2 in | 19.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.8 in | 14.0 in | 13.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Zone rate | 47.4% | 48.2% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.8% | 29.7% | 30.3% | 29.7% |
| Whiff rate | 20.6% | 22.8% | 24.5% | 22.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.3% | 54.4% | 56.4% | 54.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.9% | 41.8% | 39.4% | 41.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.9% | 20.1% | 22.2% | 20.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.2% | 34.8% | 34.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.5% | 41.1% | 40.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 18.3% | 17.4% | 18.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.6% | 29.8% | 28.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.4% | 17.7% | 18.4% |