Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.0 in
- RP forecast
- 4.9 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.0 in | 4.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.2 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.2 in | 5.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.3 in | 17.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 87 | 94 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 84 | 84 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 33.3% | 43.9% | 43.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 40.0% | 31.5% | 32.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 14.3% | 22.1% | 23.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 41.5% | 43.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 40.7% | 38.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 0.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 0.0% | 14.2% | 16.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.1% | 45.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 43.1% | 43.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.4% | 36.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.5% | 9.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 40.8% | 42.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 9.9% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable