Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 18.1 in
- RP forecast
- 18.1 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 18.1 in | 18.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.5 in | 2.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.6 mph | 93.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 41.0% | 44.6% | 44.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 20.3% | 25.2% | 25.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.7% | 25.2% | 26.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 17.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.1% | 50.1% | 52.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 61.8% | 44.4% | 42.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 20.0% | 11.2% | 11.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.1% | 22.9% | 25.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.2% | 45.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.2% | 44.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.1% | 2.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 42.7% | 43.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |