Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.1 in
- RP forecast
- 3.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.1 in | 3.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.2 in | 19.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.0 mph | 98.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.8 in | 3.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.0 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 106 | 107 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 111 | 112 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.0% | 47.7% | 47.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.8% | 30.3% | 30.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 37.9% | 32.5% | 34.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 60.5% | 45.0% | 47.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 47.4% | 42.6% | 40.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.9 pp | 0.9 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 30.9% | 27.1% | 29.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 44.4% | 45.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.1% | 45.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 41.0% | 41.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.7% | 10.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.1% | 1.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 37.0% | 38.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.1% | 11.4% | — |