Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.7 in
- RP forecast
- 16.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.7 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 0.8 in | 0.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 43.8% | 46.2% | 46.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.0% | 26.8% | 27.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.3% | 23.6% | 25.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.0% | 46.8% | 48.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.0% | 41.1% | 38.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.9 pp | 0.9 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 15.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.3% | 20.6% | 22.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 42.1% | 42.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.4% | 55.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.2% | 38.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 38.8% | 40.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.6% | 14.9% | — |