Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.1 in
Loading projection…
| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.14 | 1.29 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 43.9% |
| RP · chosen | 3.68 | 1.26 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 45.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.2 in | 14.1 in | 14.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.0 in | 12.0 in | 12.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.9 mph | 95.5 mph | 95.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.1 in | 6.3 in | 6.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | 105 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 48.0% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.2% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| Whiff rate | 25.2% | 24.6% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 43.9% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.6% | 39.8% | 37.4% | 37.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.0% | 23.3% | 25.4% | 25.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.6% | 36.1% | 36.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.7% | 60.7% | 60.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.3% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.3% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.6% | 15.8% | 15.8% |