Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.3 in
- RP forecast
- 6.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.44 | 1.30 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 37.7% |
| RP | 3.99 | 1.26 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 39.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.3 in | 6.3 in | 6.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.2 in | 18.2 in | 18.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.6 mph | 93.2 mph | 92.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.3 in | 14.5 in | 14.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.8 in | 8.0 in | 7.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 95 | 97 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 95 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 45.3% | 47.3% | 47.0% | 47.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.7% | 28.7% | 29.3% | 28.7% |
| Whiff rate | 28.4% | 25.2% | 26.9% | 25.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.9% | 37.7% | 39.7% | 37.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.1% | 38.0% | 35.6% | 38.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.6% | 21.2% | 23.3% | 21.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 15.6% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.0% | 60.1% | 60.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.4% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.3% | 23.4% | 24.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.9% | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.5% | 17.7% | 18.5% |