Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 12.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 12.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.35 | 1.33 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 39.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.89 | 1.29 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 41.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.2 in | 12.1 in | 12.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.5 in | 14.5 in | 14.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.8 mph | 98.3 mph | 98.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.7 in | 2.9 in | 2.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.9 in | 19.0 in | 19.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 109 | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 48.6% | 48.2% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.2% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 31.4% | 29.2% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 13.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.5% | 39.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.7% | 43.7% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.4% | 25.3% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 22.8% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 68.4% | 68.4% | 68.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 51.1% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.3% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.9% | 15.1% | 15.1% |