Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 15.8 in
- RP forecast
- 15.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.40 | 1.36 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 46.1% |
| RP | 3.94 | 1.32 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 48.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.8 in | 15.7 in | 15.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.3 in | 9.3 in | 9.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.4 mph | 97.0 mph | 96.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.4 in | 17.5 in | 17.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.1 in | 10.3 in | 10.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 100 | 102 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 42.8% | 45.9% | 45.7% | 45.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.0% | 29.9% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| Whiff rate | 26.5% | 26.8% | 28.6% | 26.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.6% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 46.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.5% | 43.1% | 40.7% | 43.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.3% | 22.5% | 24.5% | 22.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.8% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.9% | 39.0% | 38.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 18.7% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 30.0% | 29.1% | 30.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.9% | 29.2% | 27.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.9% | 19.2% | 19.9% |