Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.7 in
- RP forecast
- 15.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.7 in | 15.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.2 in | 6.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.5 mph | 91.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.3 in | 8.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.4 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 98 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 40.5% | 45.7% | 45.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 19.5% | 26.1% | 26.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.8% | 21.4% | 23.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 47.2% | 49.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.0% | 38.4% | 36.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.5 pp | -0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.3% | 17.1% | 19.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.5% | 55.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.1% | 26.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.8% | 14.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 24.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.7% | 18.0% | — |