Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.4 in
- RP forecast
- 16.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.41 | 1.33 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 44.3% |
| RP | 3.96 | 1.29 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 46.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.4 in | 16.3 in | 16.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.5 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.6 mph | 94.2 mph | 93.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.1 in | 19.3 in | 19.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.3 in | 7.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 46.1% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.6% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 21.5% | 23.9% | 25.7% | 23.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.8% | 44.3% | 46.3% | 44.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.3% | 40.5% | 38.0% | 40.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.1% | 20.4% | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.9% | 26.5% | 25.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.6% | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.4% | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 22.1% | 21.2% | 22.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 23.0% | 23.8% |