Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.92 | 1.27 | 27.8% | 10.3% | 40.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.46 | 1.23 | 29.9% | 10.6% | 42.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.0 in | 3.9 in | 3.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.7 mph | 97.3 mph | 97.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 116 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Zone rate | 43.6% | 47.1% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.8% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 32.0% | 30.0% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.0% | 40.8% | 42.8% | 42.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.6% | 38.0% | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 31.0% | 27.8% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.7% | 46.2% | 46.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.7% | 50.7% | 50.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.6% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.4% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.7% | 13.9% | 13.9% |