Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 11.9 in
- RP forecast
- 11.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.59 | 1.18 | 27.7% | 7.9% | 45.2% |
| RP | 3.13 | 1.14 | 29.8% | 8.1% | 47.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.9 in | 11.8 in | 11.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.6 in | 13.7 in | 13.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.5 mph | 97.0 mph | 96.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.6 in | 8.7 in | 8.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.7 in | 15.8 in | 15.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 109 | 103 | 105 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 46.6% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.7% | 30.9% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| Whiff rate | 31.9% | 30.5% | 32.2% | 30.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.2% | 45.2% | 47.2% | 45.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.2% | 38.2% | 35.8% | 38.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.3% | 27.7% | 29.8% | 27.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.3% | 37.9% | 37.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.5% | 44.6% | 44.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.6% | 27.2% | 26.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 18.7% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.1% | 33.3% | 32.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.1% | 17.3% | 18.1% |