Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.0 in
- RP forecast
- 12.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.0 in | 12.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.7 in | 12.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 87.7 mph | 88.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.6 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.1 in | 11.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 85 | 92 | 93 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 89 | 91 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 43.8% | 46.9% | 46.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 20.0% | 24.9% | 25.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.7% | 19.7% | 21.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.6% | 37.0% | 39.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.6% | 37.8% | 35.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 20.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 12.8% | 14.6% | 16.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.4% | 18.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.5% | 48.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.7% | 30.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 34.6% | 33.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.1% | 32.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.1% | 15.3% | — |