Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.66 | 1.40 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 41.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.21 | 1.36 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 43.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.9 in | 8.8 in | 8.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.5 in | 12.6 in | 12.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.7 mph | 96.3 mph | 96.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.0 in | 12.2 in | 12.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 2.9 in | 3.0 in | 3.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 44.5% | 47.4% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.6% | 29.4% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Whiff rate | 28.8% | 25.6% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.2% | 41.5% | 43.5% | 43.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.5% | 42.6% | 40.1% | 40.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.6% | 20.5% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.7% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.6% | 38.6% | 38.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.3% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 30.0% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.2% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.3% | 23.5% | 23.5% |