Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP forecast
- 16.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.8 in | 7.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.4 mph | 97.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.2 in | 14.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.0 in | 10.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 105 | 106 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 43.0% | 45.9% | 45.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.2% | 29.2% | 29.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 31.4% | 28.5% | 30.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.5% | 45.5% | 47.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.0% | 40.4% | 37.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.4% | 23.6% | 25.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 53.9% | 54.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 32.6% | 32.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 21.5% | 22.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.2% | 13.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 50.2% | 51.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | — |