Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.02 | 1.30 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 45.9% |
| RP · chosen | 3.56 | 1.26 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 47.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.3 in | 5.2 in | 5.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.8 mph | 98.4 mph | 98.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.1 in | 18.2 in | 18.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 46.1% | 47.8% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.8% | 30.4% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Whiff rate | 29.4% | 27.1% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.9% | 45.9% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.1% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.0% | 24.3% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 17.2% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.9% | 63.9% | 63.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.4% | 43.0% | 43.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.4% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.5% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.2% | 18.5% | 18.5% |