Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.4 in
- RP forecast
- 6.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.4 in | 6.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.2 in | 14.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 99.1 mph | 99.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.3 in | 16.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 51.5% | 50.0% | 49.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.4% | 29.5% | 30.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.1% | 21.0% | 22.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.8% | 48.6% | 50.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 24.3% | 40.4% | 37.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 10.4% | 16.2% | 18.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.4% | 27.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 71.1% | 71.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.1% | 37.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.7% | 1.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.0% | 30.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.8% | 22.0% | — |