Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 10.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.33 | 1.41 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 52.4% |
| RP · chosen | 3.88 | 1.38 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 54.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.1 in | 10.0 in | 10.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 4.0 in | 4.1 in | 4.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.3 mph | 97.9 mph | 97.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.7 in | 6.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.5 in | 11.7 in | 11.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 45.0% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.0% | 29.0% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Whiff rate | 28.5% | 26.7% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.0% | 52.4% | 54.4% | 54.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 47.4% | 44.4% | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.2% | 22.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.4% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.6% | 61.6% | 61.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.6% | 33.1% | 33.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.8% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 26.3% | 25.6% | 25.6% |