Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.28 | 1.32 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 45.9% |
| RP · chosen | 3.82 | 1.28 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 47.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.0 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.4 in | 9.5 in | 9.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.5 mph | 94.1 mph | 94.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.7 in | 2.8 in | 2.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.1 in | 18.3 in | 18.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 114 | 115 | 115 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.9% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.6% | 30.6% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Whiff rate | 26.5% | 24.1% | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.5% | 45.9% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.2% | 40.9% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.3% | 22.1% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 66.5% | 67.1% | 67.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 31.3% | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.3% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 38.3% | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 27.6% | 26.8% | 26.8% |