Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.5 in
- RP forecast
- 10.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.5 in | 10.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.2 in | 14.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.6 mph | 97.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.6 in | 2.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.7 in | 17.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.9% | 47.3% | 47.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.4% | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.9% | 22.4% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.3% | 45.7% | 47.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.5% | 41.0% | 38.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.9% | 17.7% | 19.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.3% | 28.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.0% | 56.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.7% | 26.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.4% | 14.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.0% | 26.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 25.5% | 24.8% | — |