Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.8 in
- RP forecast
- 5.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.8 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.2 in | 10.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 92 | 92 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.4% | 48.2% | 48.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.2% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.3% | 21.9% | 23.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 31.9% | 36.1% | 38.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.8% | 41.4% | 39.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 11.7% | 15.2% | 17.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 54.5% | 55.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 42.8% | 42.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.1% | 34.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.7% | 1.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.4% | 27.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 21.5% | — |