Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.3 in
- RP forecast
- 7.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.3 in | 7.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.3 in | 16.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.2 mph | 98.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.8 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.3 in | 10.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 107 | 108 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 110 | 112 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.7% | 49.9% | 49.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.0% | 31.0% | 31.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 27.2% | 29.6% | 31.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 26.6% | 34.3% | 36.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.8% | 42.0% | 39.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 27.3% | 28.2% | 30.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.0% | 34.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.3% | 48.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.7% | 9.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.4% | 31.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.3% | 10.5% | — |