Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 10.6 in
- RP forecast
- 10.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.82 | 1.23 | 28.2% | 8.8% | 44.2% |
| RP | 3.36 | 1.19 | 30.3% | 9.1% | 46.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.6 in | 10.5 in | 10.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.5 in | 14.6 in | 14.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.4 mph | 98.0 mph | 97.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.1 in | 11.3 in | 11.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | 17.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 48.6% | 48.3% | 48.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.7% | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.2% |
| Whiff rate | 32.8% | 29.8% | 31.6% | 29.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.5% | 44.2% | 46.2% | 44.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.6% | 42.5% | 40.0% | 42.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 33.2% | 28.2% | 30.3% | 28.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 47.1% | 47.6% | 47.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.7% | 50.7% | 50.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.4% | 29.0% | 28.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.9% | 25.1% | 23.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.3% | 20.5% | 21.3% |