Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.37 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 51.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.91 | 1.32 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 53.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 0.6 in | 0.6 in | 0.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.8 mph | 93.4 mph | 93.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.5 in | 12.6 in | 12.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 88 | 89 | 89 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 46.6% | 47.9% | 47.6% | 47.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 27.4% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Whiff rate | 22.1% | 22.4% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.2% | 51.5% | 53.5% | 53.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.9% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.7% | 20.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.2% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.0% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.8% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 18.2% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.4% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.4% | 17.6% | 17.6% |