Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.54 | 1.35 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 42.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.09 | 1.31 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 44.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.3 in | 14.2 in | 14.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.0 in | 13.0 in | 13.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 92.9 mph | 92.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.5 in | 19.7 in | 19.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 89 | 89 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Zone rate | 51.3% | 51.1% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.2% | 29.4% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Whiff rate | 20.8% | 20.5% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.2% | 42.3% | 44.3% | 44.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.8% | 41.7% | 39.3% | 39.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.0% | 18.6% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 22.4% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.1% | 62.1% | 62.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.2% | 39.7% | 39.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.7% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.0% | 13.2% | 13.2% |